Olduvai theory

The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization (as defined by per capita energy production) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). The theory provides a quantitative basis of the transient-pulse theory of modern civilization. The name is a reference to the Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania.

History

The Olduvai theory was introduced in 1989 by power system engineer Richard C. Duncan as the "transient-pulse theory of industrial civilization". The theory was backed up with data in the 1993 paper "The life-expectancy of industrial civilization: The decline to global equilibrium".

In June, 1996, Duncan introduced a paper titled "The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age" where the term "Olduvai Theory" replaced "transient-pulse theory" used in previous papers. Duncan further updated his theory in "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposium of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000. In 2005, Duncan extended his data set to include up to 2003 in "The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization".

Details of theory

Industrial civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time between energy production per capita rising above 37% of its eventual peak value, and it falling back below 37% of the peak value later. In 1996 he estimated this period to be from 1930 until approximately 2025, with the per capita peak having occurred in 1977. In 2009, he considered separately the peaks of standard of living in OECD countries, non-OECD countries (specifically China, India and Brazil), and the USA. He found that the standard of living in the US peaked in 1973, that of OECD countries in 2005, while that of the non-OECD countries was still rising in 2007. He predicted a global peak in standard of living 2010, followed by a decline to the 1930 level by 2030.

The Olduvai theory claims that exponential growth of energy production ended in 1979, that energy use per capita will show no growth through 2008, and that after 2008 energy growth will become sharply negative, culminating, after a Malthusian catastrophe, in a world population of 2 billion circa 2050.

The Olduvai theory divides human history into three phases. The first "pre-industrial" phase stretches over most of human history when simple tools and weak machines limited economic growth. The second "industrial" phase encompasses modern industrial civilization where machines temporarily lift all limits to growth. The final "de-industrial" phase follows where industrial economies decline to a period of equilibrium with renewable resources and the natural environment.

The decline of the industrial phase is broken into three sections:

• The Olduvai slope (1979–1999) - energy per capita 'declined at 0.33%/year'
• The Olduvai slide (2000–2011) - 'begins ... with the escalating warfare in the Middle East... marks the all-time peak of world oil production'.
• The Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'begins ... in 2012 when an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreads worldwide, i.e. first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire'. This is partly connected to fossil fuel production, as coal and natural gas are significant fuel sources in electricity generation, but it is unclear how nuclear power generation fails, if at all.

Timeline

Further information: Oil depletion

File:Hubbert peak oil plot.svg

A bell-shaped production curve, as originally suggested by M. King Hubbert in 1956.

Perry Arnett postulates (2007) the following timeline:

• 1979: US per capita energy use peaked; still floundering on a plateau in 2006, but ready to fall precipitously ('cliff') at any time
• 2005: World crude oil probably peaked; still on an undulating plateau in 2007; starts off the 'cliff' ~2010-2012 or before
• 2005: World food production (grains) peaked
• 2008 (or sooner): World Natural Gas per capita peaks
• 2010 (or sooner): Natural Gas 'cliff' arrives
• 2012 (or sooner): US electricity blackouts and brownouts become the norm
• 2012: US potable, available water peak and 'cliff'; shortages and waterborne diseases increase
• 2015: US Health Care System in complete chaos, breakdown and failure; sanitation, drugs, return of communicable diseases, poorer nutrition etc.
• 2015: World “Dieoff” begins in earnest; largely starvation, disease and poor healthcare caused
• 2030: US per-capita energy consumption hits the “30% mark-AFTER peak”, equaling year 1930 lifestyles again (probably much sooner than 2030)

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global food production will exceed population growth between today and 2030.

Criticism

Data

At the time of Duncan's paper, the peak in per capita energy consumption was 11.15 boe/c/yr (barrels of oil equivalent per capita per year) and occurred in 1979; however, since then energy use per capita has increased beyond that level, with 2006 providing a peak value of 12.12 boe/c/yr. This increase directly contradicts Postulate 2 of the most recent version of the theory, namely that "[average per capita energy] will show no growth from 1979 to circa 2008". Duncan has responded to this criticism in a 2009 essay entitled The Olduvai Theory - Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living. The response is that certain non-OPEC countries such as China and India have increased their per capita energy usage whilst efficiency improvements within the USA & OPEC have reduced their requirements for energy without impacting the quality of life. The theory is then re-assessed from the standpoint OPEC, non-OPEC and USA energy consumption.

Proponents note that the current trend of increasing per capita energy consumption may be difficult to sustain in the face of limits on finite resources such as oil, coal, and natural gas. Critics argue that this demonstrated lack of predictive power renders the theory's other predictions unreliable, while others cite this as only compounding the warnings the theory gives.

Another criticism is that Olduvai, like Malthusian population/food growth theories (that population, if unchecked, increases at a geometric rate, whereas the food-supply grows at an arithmetic rate) and related theories of pandemic food shortages, do not take into account technological and social changes. For example, advances in alternative energies may allow for the possibility that energy consumption can be sustainable at current levels. Consumption habits are also a function of social change and evolution - e.g. conservation. Thus, the implementation of new technologies along with a change in consumption habits could significantly affect the likelihood of the consequences of Olduvai Theory.

See Cornucopian.

Quote

In justification of his reference to Olduvai Gorge, Duncan writes:

...(1) it is justly famous, (2) I've been there, (3) its long hollow sound is eerie and ominous, and (4) it is a good metaphor for the 'Stone Age way of life'.

See also

• Doomsday argument
• Future energy development
• Global warming
• Great Depression
• Hubbert peak theory
• M. King Hubbert
• Malthusian catastrophe
• Myth of Progress
• Peak oil
• Societal collapse
• White's law

External links

• The Olduvai Theory - Towards Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living (PDF file) - Summer 2009, The Social Contract
• America - A Frog in the Kettle Slowly Coming to a Boil - Fall 2007, The Social Contract
• The Olduvai Theory - Terminal Decline Imminent - Spring 2007, The Social Contract
• World Energy Production, Population Growth, and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge - May 2001 (this was an invited presentation to the Pardee Keynote Symposia, GSA Summit 2000, Reno NV, Nov 13)
• M. King Hubbert on the Nature of Growth. 1974
• Olduvai Revisited 2008 (TheOilDrum)
• The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization (less complete than the paper referenced above but updated more recently)
• dieoff.org
• "The Post-Petroleum Paradigm—and Population" - Walter Youngquist (1999)
• "Forecast of Oil and Gas Supply to 2050" - Jean Laherrere (2003) (PDF file)
• "2006 Long-Term Reliability Assessment" - North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC)